Real-world data shows negligible differences in greenhouse gas emissions between plug-in hybrids and conventional internal combustion engine cars, according to tech research company IDTechEx.
All new cars sold in Europe must be zero emissions by 2035. Similar policies will follow in other parts of the world. While hybrids don’t countnas zero emissions, they have been an integral part of original equipment manufacturers’ fleet emissions reductio efforts. The European Union fines carmakers for every ton of carbon dioxide over an incrementally increasing limit.
Once touted as a transitional step toward full electrification, PHEVs’ lower purchase price and greater range have pushed global sales up by 75% to more than 7 million units in 2024. IDTechEx predicts PHEVs’ share of new sales to peak at 5% market share by 2028. Battery EVs will grow too, reaching 75% by 2045.
A European Commission report found that on average, PHEV emissions were three and a half times greater than the stated test results. This was largely attributed to drivers preferring the ICE instead of the battery.
An analyst from IDTechEx revealed that what was particularly noticeable in their research was just how polluting PHEVs are in real-world conditions versus the stated Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles test procedure, the global driving cycle standard emissions test.
“On-road emissions averaged 267% higher than stated figures, an enormous delta. This discrepancy is not down to false reporting by manufacturers but an inherent artifact of how PHEV emissions are calculated in WLTP,” IDTechEx’s technology analyst Mika Takahashi told Lube Report. “The EU is expected to adjust the so-called ‘utility factor’ (UF), which accounts for how much of the test cycle is electric only. In short – people drive PHEVs far less in full electric mode than the dynamometer tests expect/account for.”
The commission’s report remarks that PHEVs are not realizing their potential to save emissions. Takahashi suggests that on an emissions reduction front, “consumers have to charge their PHEVs to gain the emissions benefits. For manufacturers of PHEVs, staying ahead of any upcoming regulations to keep PHEV sales beneficial to their overall CO2 targets.”