Sales at oil change and lubrication shops in the United States rose 14% to $8 billion in 2023, continuing a trend of year-on-year increases since declining to $5.9 billion in 2020, according to a joint report by the Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers.
Called the channel forecast model, the report covers sales histories and forecasts for a variety of automotive after market categories.
It forecasts sales by oil change and lubrication shops to grow by a compound annual rate of 8% out to $10.4 billion in 2027. From 2018 to 2023, sales at oil change and lubrication shops rose at a compound annual rate of 7%.
Average sales per shop in the U.S. jumped 11% to more than $1 million in 2023. In the past four years, the average sales per shop grew by a 6% compound annual rate.
Of the $8 billion in sales from oil change and lubrication shops in 2023, 94% were to do-it-for-me customers, and 6% were for do-it-yourself customers. In 2022, the split was 96% to 4%.
The channel forecast model follows the North American Industry Classification System, which defines automotive oil change and lubrication shops as establishments that mainly engage in changing motor oil and lubricating the chassis of automotive vehicles. The system is used for establishment-based federal economic statistics classified by industry for the United States, Mexico and Canada.
According to preliminary U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the number of oil change and lubrication shops in the U.S. rose to 7,865 as of 2023’s third quarter, a 2% increase from 7,674 in 2022. Since 2019, when the total was 7,282, the total has risen by a compound annual rate of 2%.
The main sources of data used as inputs in the joint channel forecast model are U.S. Economic Census data, the National Automotive Dealers Association, Industrial Marketing Research Inc. and S&P Global Mobility. MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers is a membership group within MEMA, The Vehicle Suppliers Association.