I think the overall picture for Africa is that it is a fragmented market. While some parts of the African market are advanced, others are trying to catch up, Wai-Fong Chen, base oil product manager for Chevron, said to delegates at the sixth ICIS Base Oils and Lubricants conference in Accra, Ghana.

Cost remains a critical factor in the shift towards premium base oils in sub-Saharan Africa, Karim Ben Hassine, sales representative for Maddoc, an additives manufacturer based in the United Arab Emirates, told LubesnGreases. If the price is good, blenders will move to Group II, but if the price is high they will remain with Group I, Ben Hassine said.

The main problem is in West and North Africa. [The market] is SAE 40 and 50 because if you move to Group II, it means that you are going to produce 10W-40 and [that] means you go for a new car, he added. SAE 40 and SAE 50 are monograde engine oils that are generally obsolete for on-road vehicles in developed markets, having been replaced by multi-grades, of which 10W-40 is one.

Amos Donkor, managing director of Ghanas Tema Lube Oil Co., agreed that while pricing is one driver in the uptake of Group II, quality is more important. The issue of price is a factor but quality for Group II is supreme. Currently, because most of the refineries are shifting from Group I to Group II, the price difference is closing up, added Donkor. In the past decade, Group Is share of global base oil capacity has declined from 65 percent to 39 percent.

Chen also noted the numerous other advantages of focusing on quality instead of price. A higher quality lubricant can help reduce fuel, maintenance and replacement costs, breakdowns and environmental impact, as well as an increase in equipment efficiency. Other factors that distinguish Group II from Group I, she claimed, include supply reliability, consistent quality, improved marketing opportunities for both heavy-duty motor oils and industrial oils, extended dispersant life and reduced soot.

John Erinne, CEO of Nigerian chemicals company Matrix Petro-Chem, said that adoption of Group II base oil in Nigeria is very limited, adding that it has less than a 20 percent share of the countrys base oil demand. However, Taiye Williams, managing director of Lubcon Ltd., also based in Nigeria, said the prospects for Group II in Nigeria are bright and emphasized that the material is becoming more attractive as the price difference with Group I closes.

South Africa is one lubricant market in Africa where Group II is gaining traction, partly due to its modern vehicle parc and developed economy. Cliff Classen, managing director of Orbichem South Africa, estimated the penetration of Group II could be as high as a 30 percent in the South African lubricant market.

The profile of the market and the type of oil in the market is changing because of the ease of access to Group II and Group III and because of the shift towards higher quality or higher specification, Classen told LubesnGreases.

Hicham Bouzoubaa, senior business manager in Morocco for Saudi Arabian lubricants company Petromin Corp., said that unstable supply of Group I is hastening the shift towards Group II, which he estimated already accounts for 10 to 20 percent of Moroccos lubricant market. The majority of blenders are not sure to get sustainable supply of Group I, so they are obliged to use Group II even more when the price of Group II is comparable with Group I, said Bouzoubaa.

While acknowledging that there is no Group II capacity in Ghana, Donkor noted his company had begun preparation for a transition to Group II. We have finished lubes like the synthetic oils that are blended with Group II, he said.

Charles Mbithi, sales manager for Africa Fuels and Lubricants Ltd. in Kenya, estimates Group II accounts for 2 percent of the Kenyan lubricant market. However, Mbithi noted that Group II will gain traction because Kenya adapts to global best practices quickly.

Donkor believes there is a need to raise consumers awareness of the benefits of Group II oils in terms of the total cost of maintenance. This is especially important in West Africa, where consumers have misleading impressions about the properties of engine oils. It is important to educate the customers to refrain from the thicker-the-better mentality … to understand that [Group II] is better suited to their economic advantage, Donkor added.

Africa cannot afford to be left behind, and so it is a matter of when not if Group II lubes will gain a firmer foothold across the continent. While the time of this transition remains unclear, uptake will not be uniform. Some countries, such as Morocco and Tunisia, will embrace Group II before others, followed by the bigger markets in Nigeria and Egypt.